The murky world of Thai-Cambodian affairs

When Thaksin Shinawatra said in a phone-in last week that jailed Thai activists Veera Somkwamkid and Ratree Pipattanapaiboon will be brought home from Cambodia if his party wins the election, the man in exile could not make the crazy irony involving Phnom Penh and Thai political players any more obvious.

If anything, that statement only confirmed that we are seeing just the tip of the iceberg. As with Hun Sen's strange grin over the weekend when he shook hands with Abhisit Vejjajiva in Jakarta, maybe the best we can do is guess what the rest means.

And we were wrong before, weren't we? When Phnom Penh ended Thaksin's economic advisory role late last year, we took it as a sign of soured relations between him and Hun Sen, or a sign of some kind of pressure from a big brother that the Cambodian leader respected or feared. At the same time, Abhisit and Hun Sen looked like an estranged couple in the process of making up. Then Veera led a small group of Thai nationalists to the border and tension boiled over. There's been no turning back.

No matter what was behind his "relief" from duty, Thaksin must be feeling very relieved. Border trouble turned bloody wouldn't bode well for his Pheu Thai Party's chances in the election if he remained Cambodia's honorary economic adviser. Now Thaksin could be just the man to take Veera and Ratree home if things go his way - a much nicer position to be in.

And if signs from the yellow shirts, or their leader to be exact, are not misconstrued, Thaksin won't worry much about this battlefront, where the People's Alliance for Democracy has turned its attention almost entirely to the Democrats. Sondhi Limthongkul has not publicly chosen between Thaksin and Abhisit, but the latter is being attacked with ever-increasing intensity whereas the former has only been mentioned lately as a devil that only the Democrat leader can match. In a speech last week, Sondhi said that it would be "the Democrats' business" if the PAD's "Vote No" campaign inadvertently helps bring Thaksin back to Thailand.

So, we are having an ironic prelude to the election. If a "Vote No" campaign by a movement that five years ago orchestrated thunderous shouts of "Thaksin, Get Out!" was to help ease him back in, then it wouldn't be beyond reason for him to help win freedom for two of its activists. Don't let this wrack your brain, as we still have a bigger picture to contemplate.

The Democrats, who before their rise to power had criticised every aspect of their rivals' Cambodian policy, are getting a taste of their own medicine. (Noppadol Pattama must be rolling on the floor laughing at the predicament of his successor Kasit Piromya.) The yellow shirts have not only re-focused their attacks on Abhisit's Cambodian failings, but also seem to forget, if not forgive, a pro-Thaksin government's role in this bilateral crisis. In a way, the yellow shirts have to pretend to be short-sighted because otherwise the paradox could be too much to bear: In trying to snub the Democrats for their Cambodian mix-up, the PAD wouldn't mind bringing back those who "sowed the seeds" of our sovereignty disgrace in the first place.

A pro-Thaksin government should have a better relationship with Hun Sen. This much we can speculate. In keeping up his "It's the Democrats' business", Sondhi is not expected to assert himself too much. That won't be easy, but he will be in good company when it comes to what role he should play. The Democrats, if they end up in the opposition, will have to watch every video clip in existence and read a thousand published news stories concerning Cambodia in order to make sure that anything they say will not generate boos and jeers all the way to Phnom Penh and Jakarta.

Abhisit can take comfort at the transformation of Sondhi, though. From "Thaksin is the best prime minister I've ever known" (that clip's still attracting regular views on YouTube) to "Thaksin, get out!" to "Abhisit's an equal evil" to "If Thaksin comes back, then so be it", Sondhi has shown he's anything but ashamed of making an abrupt public U-turn. Maybe all politicians should learn from Sondhi. If politics is all about flip-flopping, why do it in hiding? An about-face can look like a re-branding if you do it properly.

How much Hun Sen is in all this we can only guess. But while the grin in Jakarta has told us nothing, he has probably - in public views at least - been the least flip-flopping when it comes to the Preah Vihear controversy. And lucky him, because he doesn't have Cambodian versions of Thaksin or Sondhi lurking in the open or the shadows. Perhaps we Thais should be thankful for that, too.

The Nation